As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, experts are weighing in on the future of cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Their conclusion? If Kamala Harris becomes president, the chances of expanding crypto ETFs beyond Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are slim.
The Current Landscape of Crypto ETFs
Earlier this year, the approval of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs was hailed as a significant victory for the crypto industry. After years of lobbying and even legal battles—most notably with Grayscale successfully suing the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)—these funds have attracted billions of dollars from investors.
However, momentum appears to be slowing. Recently, several firms have submitted applications to create ETFs that track other cryptocurrencies, including Ripple’s XRP and Solana’s SOL. But analysts are skeptical about their approval, especially if Harris ascends to the presidency.
A Tough Stance on Crypto?
Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, states bluntly, “It won’t happen if Harris wins, regardless of the issuer.” His comment underscores the prevailing sentiment that a Harris administration would maintain a cautious approach toward cryptocurrency regulation.
In contrast, if former President Donald Trump were to reclaim the White House, the outlook for additional crypto ETFs could brighten significantly. Balchunas mentions that there would be a “decent chance” for broader crypto ETF approvals, irrespective of which firms are vying for them.
The Political Landscape and Its Implications
Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, shares a similar view. He emphasizes that a Harris administration is unlikely to greenlight additional spot crypto ETFs, at least not soon after the election. Geraci cites the current administration’s “combative” approach toward cryptocurrency and Harris’s influential role within it as reasons for maintaining the status quo.
With Trump’s recent rise in support from the crypto community—bolstered by his appearances at major Bitcoin events and endorsements of crypto platforms—his potential return to power is seen as a boon for crypto advocates. Polling data from the prediction market Polymarket indicates Trump’s odds of winning the election have surged to 62.4%, the highest they’ve been in months.
Harris’s Approach to Crypto
While Harris has been relatively quiet on the cryptocurrency front, she has recently outlined plans to establish a regulatory framework aimed at supporting digital assets. Her campaign highlighted an intention to engage with communities, particularly among Black men, who are statistically more likely to own cryptocurrencies. Yet, specifics about how she would bolster the crypto industry remain scarce.
What This Means for Investors
For investors and crypto enthusiasts, this political landscape brings uncertainty. The path ahead for cryptocurrencies and their associated investment vehicles may hinge significantly on the election outcome.
As it stands, the approval of crypto ETFs that track assets beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum seems contingent upon the political climate. Should Trump win, a wave of new opportunities might emerge. On the other hand, a Harris presidency could stifle further growth in the crypto ETF market, at least in the near term.
The Broader Context
The debate over cryptocurrency regulation isn’t just about financial instruments; it’s about the future of digital currencies in America. As more investors look to enter the crypto market, the fate of ETFs could shape broader perceptions of cryptocurrency as a legitimate asset class.
The crypto community is watching closely as the election draws nearer, knowing that the next president’s policies will significantly impact the direction of the market. The rise of digital currencies may depend not only on technological advancements but also on the regulatory environment crafted by the next administration.
Conclusion
In summary, while the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs marked a new chapter for cryptocurrency investments, the future of expanding that landscape is murky. Experts believe a Harris presidency could stymie growth for other crypto ETFs, while a return of Trump might open the floodgates for more diverse offerings. As the political climate evolves, the crypto world stands poised for a pivotal shift, with the upcoming election serving as a crucial inflection point.

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