As the November 5 US presidential election approaches, Bitcoin options traders are increasingly optimistic, betting that the cryptocurrency will soar to a record high of $80,000—regardless of who wins. This sentiment is reflected in the elevated implied volatility of Bitcoin options set to expire around election day, with many traders favoring call options, which allow them to buy Bitcoin at higher prices.
A Market Divided Yet Optimistic
David Lawant, head of research at crypto prime broker FalconX, notes, “The market consensus appears to be that Bitcoin will likely perform well no matter the election outcome.” He highlights a significant bias towards upside bets in options trading surrounding the election.
Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump has been vocal in his support of cryptocurrencies, making Bitcoin a potential “Trump trade.” On the other hand, Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris advocates for a supportive regulatory framework for the crypto industry, contrasting sharply with the regulatory crackdown seen during the Biden administration. This political landscape, combined with expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, has bolstered optimism in the market.
Testing the $70,000 Waters
Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $73,798 in March, fueled by excitement surrounding newly launched exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, the subsequent rally has moderated, and the cryptocurrency has hovered close to the $70,000 mark recently. As of Wednesday morning, Bitcoin was trading at around $67,100, up approximately 60% for the year.
The put-to-call ratio is trending downward, indicating that more traders are buying call options than puts. This suggests that traders are positioning themselves for a breakout, whether upward or downward. Yev Feldman, co-founder of SwapGlobal, explains, “We see traders buying calls near $68,000 and puts near $66,000, showing a strong inclination towards a breakout.”
Concentrated Bets on $80,000
Open interest in Bitcoin call contracts set to expire on November 29 is heavily concentrated around the $80,000 strike price, with the next most popular being $70,000. For contracts expiring on December 27, traders are eyeing $100,000 and $80,000, while the most popular strike for calls expiring on November 8 is $75,000.
Interestingly, call options are commanding higher premiums compared to puts, indicating that traders are more inclined to leverage the options market for upside potential rather than hedging against downside risks. “This indicates that investors are using options more as a tool for capturing potential upside rather than as a hedge against downside risks,” Lawant elaborates.
Mixed Sentiments on Altcoins
While Bitcoin shows a clear trend towards bullish sentiment, opinions on other cryptocurrencies are more divided. Lawant points out that there’s less consensus on how alternative cryptocurrencies might perform under various electoral scenarios, creating a more cautious atmosphere among traders focusing on altcoins.
A Unique Pre-Election Landscape
Unlike past significant events such as the launch of Bitcoin ETFs or halving cycles, the volatility surrounding this election may be relatively muted—at least for now. Lawant notes, “While volatility may change as the election date approaches, current market conditions indicate a more stable environment leading up to the event.”
Conclusion: Eyes on the Future
As traders prepare for the upcoming election, the Bitcoin market is rife with speculation and anticipation. The prevailing sentiment suggests that many believe Bitcoin will weather any political storm, potentially leading to new all-time highs.
With $80,000 in sight, the crypto community remains engaged, watching closely as the election unfolds. Whether you’re a seasoned trader or a newcomer to the crypto space, the next few weeks will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s trajectory. Will it soar to new heights, or will it face a setback? Only time will tell, but for now, the bets are on, and the excitement is palpable.

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