OpenAI is forecasting a significant revenue surge to $11.6 billion next year, a dramatic increase from an estimated $3.7 billion in 2024, according to sources familiar with the situation. This ambitious projection comes amidst a current fundraising round of $6.5 billion, led by Thrive Capital, which is contributing over $1 billion and has a unique opportunity to invest an additional $1 billion next year at the same valuation, contingent on OpenAI meeting a specific revenue target.
The anticipated revenue leap aligns with OpenAI’s expansion strategy, although the company expects to incur losses of up to $5 billion this year, primarily due to high spending on computing resources. The current funding, structured as convertible debt, aims to close by the end of next week, potentially valuing OpenAI at $150 billion, positioning it as one of the most valuable private companies globally.
To achieve this valuation, OpenAI is navigating a complex restructuring process to adjust the governance of its non-profit board and to lift restrictions on investor returns, a plan that has been reported previously. However, no clear timeline for this conversion has been established.
Thrive Capital, which previously led OpenAI’s funding efforts, is offering $1.2 billion through a combination of its fund and a special vehicle for smaller investors. Other notable participants in the funding round include tech giants like Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, and Khosla Ventures. Unlike Thrive, these investors do not have the option for future investment at the current valuation, giving Thrive a potential advantage if OpenAI’s valuation continues to climb.
Despite CEO Sam Altman’s earlier prediction of $1 billion in revenue for this year, OpenAI’s growth trajectory appears to be outpacing expectations. A significant portion of revenue is projected to come from corporate services and subscriptions to ChatGPT, its flagship product, which is expected to generate $2.7 billion this year—up from $700 million in 2023. Currently, ChatGPT boasts around 10 million paying users, each contributing a monthly fee of $20.
The financial details and Thrive’s investment options were initially reported by the New York Times.
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