U.S. stock futures and the dollar showed little movement on Sunday following news that the FBI is investigating a second assassination attempt targeting former President Donald Trump. The incident occurred outside Trump’s golf course in West Palm Beach, Florida, where Secret Service agents engaged with a gunman in the vicinity, resulting in multiple rounds being fired.
The S&P 500 e-mini futures were down slightly by 0.04%, reflecting minimal impact from the news. The Dollar Index, which gauges the greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, edged down 0.03% to 101.07. Bitcoin, a cryptocurrency championed by Trump, fell by 0.7% to $59,445.
Despite the gravity of the situation, market reactions were muted. Analysts suggested that while the news had potential to induce volatility, the overall market response remained subdued due to thin trading volumes. Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto, noted, “Foreign exchange rates could experience turbulence in the coming hours as news of a second assassination attempt lands amid thin trading volumes.”
The incident follows an earlier attempt on Trump’s life in Pennsylvania on July 13, which had led to a temporary boost in assets and sectors favored by a potential second Trump term. However, last week’s debate between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris had shifted market sentiment, with betting markets indicating a higher likelihood of a Harris victory in the November election.
Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone in London, commented, “Perhaps we may see some look to get back into the ‘Trump Trade’ if this sees Trump receive a boost in the polls like we saw after the earlier assassination attempt—boosting both equities and the dollar.” Nonetheless, he emphasized that with the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy meeting looming, market conviction would likely remain cautious until clearer guidance is provided by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues.
The Federal Reserve’s meeting on September 17-18 is anticipated to address uncertainties surrounding the future trajectory of interest rates. Market participants are closely watching for any signals regarding the scale and pace of potential rate cuts, which could further influence currency and asset market movements.
The latest betting odds on PredictIt showed little change, with Harris’ odds at 56 cents and Trump’s at 47 cents. Schamotta suggested that while there could be a modest recovery in the ‘Trump trade’ if the former president’s polling numbers improve, any resulting market effect might be relatively limited in scale.
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